“I suggested a little bit of a ceasefire, and I think he might do that,” President Donald Trump told reporters this week after a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “There’s so many people being killed, it’s so ridiculous.”

Putin has proposed “little” ceasefires before, but more than four years since its full-scale invasion, he shows little sign that he’s planning on ending the war that has killed nearly half a million people.

The war in Ukraine, and US diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, have both been getting far less attention in the US in recent weeks, with the focus firmly on the crisis in the Middle East. It appeared initially that Russia might end up as the unexpected beneficiary of the Iran conflict, with global oil prices spiking, the United States lifting sanctions on some Russian energy exports, and crucial US munitions, including all-important missile interceptors, diverted from Europe to the Middle East.

But if Russia is reaping a windfall, you wouldn’t know it from events on the battlefield in recent weeks. The Russians made almost no territorial gains in March, and may have even lost a small amount of territory since mid-March, despite launching a widely anticipated spring-summer offensive. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, assesses that Russia is unlikely to be able to take Ukraine’s “fortress belt,” the heavily fortified Ukrainian-held portion of the eastern Donbas region that has become one of Russia’s central war aims. Ukraine estimated Russia’s casualties at a record 35,351 per month in March, 96 percent of them caused by drones. 

Russia continued to bombard Ukrainian cities throughout the cold winter months, but Ukraine has gotten better at defending against these attacks, with its air defense systems taking down a record 33,000 drones in March, according to the Ukrainian government. The Ukrainians have become more effective at launching long-range strikes deep into Russia as well. Lately, their attacks have focused on preventing Russia from reaping an energy windfall from the Iran war: In late March, Reuters estimated that 40 percent of Russia’s oil export capacity had been taken offline by Ukrainian strikes on pipelines, ports, and refineries.  

Though Ukraine still relies on the fickle US government for key systems — like Patriot interceptors as well as targeting intelligence — European countries are now providing most of the country’s military aid, and Ukraine’s indigenous capacities are growing as well. In fact, the expertise Ukraine has acquired in producing drones and coordinating multilayered air defense allowed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ink a series of lucrative defense deals in recent weeks with several countries in the Persian Gulf and Europe. As Trump might put it, after years of heavy dependence on foreign defense aid, Ukraine now has “cards” of its own to play. 

Certainly after years of slow but relentless Russian advance, which gave ammunition to critics of Ukraine aid who argued the country’s defeat was inevitable, there’s some more confidence from Ukrainian leaders and their supporters these days. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha recently argued that because of its advances in drones and air defense, Ukraine’s frontline position is now the “strongest” it’s been in a year. Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general and prominent military commentator, recently argued that “The strategic scales are beginning to tip in Ukraine’s favor.”

It’s probably too soon to say Ukraine is winning the war, but at the very least, it doesn’t appear to be losing. 

Drone swarms and stalemate  

According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russian forces have advanced an average of 15 to 70 meters per day since 2024, slower than almost any military offensive in the past century, and those gains come at a steep cost. Ukrainian figures suggest that more than 300 Russian troops are now killed or injured for every kilometer captured.

“The Russians have sustained enormous casualties — they’re losing quite a few soldiers and quite a bit of equipment, and the Ukraine line is not really in danger of breaking,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, an Austrian military analyst who frequently visits the front lines, who adds that “the Russian strategy remains ‘attrition, attrition, attrition.’” 

Looking at the war in terms of territory held can be misleading. Much of the “front line” in Ukraine is now a sparsely populated no-man’s land, dominated by drones. The manpower and recruiting problems on both sides, along with the fact that drone surveillance has taken away the element of surprise, has made it extremely difficult to mount large-scale attacks. (For humans at least: Zelenskyy recently claimed that for the first time a Russian enemy position had been entirely captured by robotic systems and drones, without any human soldiers.)

It’s possible this trend could change in the coming months: Winter tends to favor defense because the lack of foliage makes it hard to hide, and infrared sensors work better when the ground is colder. But for the moment, neither side appears able to make major advances, and when they do — such as when Russia seized the town of Pokrovsk after months of heavy fighting in December — they’re unable to translate it into much strategic momentum. 

“The advances we’re seeing aren’t what will change the future of the war,” said Olga Oliker, director for European Security at Crisis Group. “Both sides are still fighting in the expectation that the other will break politically.”

Who will break first?

In what is probably a sign that not all is going according to plan, the Kremlin recently announced that it is dramatically scaling back this year’s May 9 “Victory Day” parade, the annual commemoration of victory over Nazi Germany that doubles as a chance to display Russia’s military might. For the first time in decades, there will be no military hardware on display at the parade this year — perhaps a sign that the tanks that usually rumble through Red Square are needed on the front lines, or that there are concerns about Ukrainian strikes. The Russian government has also been throttling the country’s internet service, perhaps a sign of insecurity, prompting a rare wave of publicly voiced discontent. Putin himself has been in even greater isolation than normal due to fears of assassination. 

But public opposition to the “special military operation” itself is still rare, and despite the economic headwinds, there remains little sign that Putin believes the war is unwinnable or that he’s inclined to wind it down. 

On the Ukrainian side, recruiting and manpower remain concerns, as they have been since early in the war. The government recently faced an outcry and promised reforms after photos circulated showing emaciated troops on the front lines who had been on rotation and under fire for months. But fears that Russia would eventually roll over Ukraine simply by virtue of its larger population have faded. 

“I think everything is proving more resilient than people anticipated,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, a former Pentagon staffer, now a senior analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses. “The Russian economy is proving more resilient; Ukrainian critical infrastructure, although it’s really taken a shot of the face, has proved more resilient; and I think that the front lines have proved more solid than people anticipated.”

Coupled with that resilience, US-led efforts to mediate a ceasefire have effectively been put on hold as US envoy Steve Witkoff and other senior US diplomats have been focused on Iran. Ukrainian leaders still publicly support calls for a ceasefire, but hopes are fading that new talks could actually deliver one. 

For the moment, fears that Ukraine’s slow, grinding defeat was inevitable seem to have been premature: It’s in a better position today that many would have anticipated, even a few months ago. But it’s also increasingly hard to see how this uniquely deadly and destructive war will end. 

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN: After she met with foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast ‌Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Brunei on April 28 (Tuesday), Kaja Kallas, the foreign policy chief from the European Union, called for partners in the region not to look to Russia for their supply of oil, as this would allow Russia to continue its war against Ukraine.

Netizens commenting on Ms Kallas’ remarks have characterised the call as “removed from reality.”

Asia continues to be the hardest hit by the war in the Middle East, which began on Feb 28 when the United States and Israel started bombing Iran. This led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint over which 20% of the world’s fuel needs transits, resulting in a global energy crisis.

Because Asia, especially Southeast Asia, is heavily dependent on the Middle East for its energy supply, its governments have been scrambling to secure fuel for their domestic needs, paying more for oil as prices have soared. 

The US temporarily halted sanctions on Russian oil that is already at sea. It did this initially for India in the first week of March, but the easing of sanctions has spread. From March 12 to April 11, countries were allowed to buy oil from Russia. 

Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam have since shown interest in buying oil from Russia.

Russia has also reportedly offered liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments to Asian countries at a 40% discount.

Ms Kallas urged Southeast Asia to see the “big picture” concerning the war in Ukraine, according to a Reuters report. 

“You have an energy crisis, and you need to have supplies. On the other hand, you have to see the big picture, which is that… if you buy Russian oil, they are able to continue with this war,” the report quotes her as saying.

Earlier this month, new sanctions were approved by the EU that included more oil trade restrictions designed to affect Russia’s funding of its attack on Ukraine, which began in February 2022. Ms Kallas pointed out that the war in the Middle East has been to Russia’s advantage because of the oil shortage, and asked for ASEAN to cooperate with the EU’s sanctions on Russia.

She also noted that buying oil from Russia is helping to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, though the diplomat did not elaborate further.

Ms Kallas’ remarks did not land well with netizens, with one asking, “What suggestions did Kalas make to relieve the South East Asian countries?” 

“Will the EU compensate ASEAN for the shortfall?” wondered another.

Others called the EU “unrealistic” and “entitled,” adding that the bloc should mind its own business.

“Yes, barrels of oil can also be harvested from banana trees,” one wrote sarcastically, adding, “The world is coping with a 15% reduction in global crude oil output due to the ME crisis. And this woman thinks that nations around the world should also forego buying Russian exports that make up about 5% of global supplies?”/TISG

Read also: War in Iran leaves Southeast Asia scrambling for oil from Russia

This article (Netizens call out top EU diplomat for asking Southeast Asia not to ‌buy Russian oil amid Iran war) first appeared on The Independent Singapore News.