Greenhouse gas emissions are heating our atmosphere and oceans, and turning seawater more acidic. One of the myriad expected impacts of these conditions is a reduction in farming yields of shellfish, such as oysters and mussels. Coastal communities worldwide rely on these organisms for their economies and as a major food supply. However, exactly how climate change will affect oyster and mussel farming is not yet clear.
Using a novel experimental setup, Pernetet al. report new projected yields of oyster and mussel farming in the Mediterranean Sea for the years 2050, 2075, and 2100. Their results suggest that by 2050, yields of both shellfish will drop dramatically, with mussel production perhaps collapsing altogether.
Most prior studies have assessed shellfish in tank experiments under fairly idealized conditions that do not adequately reflect real-world aquaculture settings. This research team took a different approach. They developed a novel system for exposing oysters and mussels in tanks to realistic conditions using water pumped in from the sea, meaning the animals would experience fluctuations in acidity, temperature, and nutrients similar to those experienced by shellfish on nearby farms.
The researchers set up 12 experimental tanks on the French Mediterranean coast in the Thau lagoon, where shellfish farming is key for the local economy. In three tanks, oysters and mussels were exposed directly to pumped-in seawater under present, ambient conditions. The rest of the tanks received seawater that was first warmed and acidified in accordance with widely accepted climate projections for 2050, 2075, and 2100, with three tanks for each year.
The survival rate of oysters in the tanks with predicted 2100 conditions dropped by 7% compared to present rates, and their growth rate dropped by 40%. These results suggest that yields of farmed oysters in the Mediterranean could drop severely over the next several decades.
The mussels fared even worse. In fact, compared to oysters, mussels have a lower range of water temperatures in which they can survive, and the upper limit is already being exceeded in some summertime Mediterranean waters, leading to mass-mortality events. In the experimental tanks under present conditions, mussel mortality was about 40%, and nearly all mussels died under predicted 2050 conditions.
On the basis of these findings, the researchers call for the urgent development of strategies to protect Mediterranean shellfish farming, such as relocating mussel-farming operations to the cooler waters of open seas or developing cofarming with algae to increase resilience to climate change. (Earth’s Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005992, 2025)
—Sarah Stanley, Science Writer
Citation: Stanley, S. (2026), Mediterranean mussel farming could collapse by 2050, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260121. Published on 17 April 2026.
After centuries of overharvesting and environmental degradation reduced the world’s oyster reefs by 85%, restoration is bringing the conglomerations of thick-shelled mollusks back to coastal waters. And their return may have more benefits than scientists realized, new research suggests.
“Oysters build the foundation of an entire ecosystem.”
Oysters were initially restored to boost depleted fisheries, according to Rachel Smith, a marine ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara. As oysters cement their shells together into reefs, they create habitats for myriad species, including fish. “Oysters build the foundation of an entire ecosystem,” Smith said.
These days, oyster reefs are restored for reasons extending beyond ecology, including to rid coastal water of excess nutrients such as nitrogen. This pollutant enters coastal waters when wastewater, sewage, and fertilizer wash into the sea.
Past studies of nitrogen removed by oyster reefs largely looked at denitrification, a process in which microbes transform organic nitrogen in dead oysters and their excrement into inert gas. If organic nitrogen evades these microbes, it can be buried in reefs, but measurements of this mechanism are few.
Researchers collected cores from 20 oyster reefs in coastal North Carolina. Credit: Antonio Rodriguez/Institute of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill
“[Burial] is definitely much less explored,” said Smith.
A study published in PLoS One looked beyond denitrification and found significant amounts of nitrogen become sequestered within oyster reefs as they grow, offering evidence that restored oyster reefs actually remove far more nitrogen than we thought.
Before she started this research, Anne Margaret Smiley, lead author of the new paper and a biogeochemist at the University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill, suspected that the amount of nitrogen buried in oyster reefs would be small because organisms at the surface transform so much of it, leaving little left to bury. She was pleasantly surprised by the results.
“We’ve been looking at denitrification all this time, and now we found out that [oysters themselves] are really good at doing this too,” she said. “What an amazing thing to know.”
In Search of Buried Nitrogen
To explore how nitrogen is buried over time, scientists turned to 20 oyster reefs in the Rachel Carson National Estuarine Research Reserve near Beaufort, N.C., that were restored nearly 3 decades ago by UNC scientists.
Using a jackhammer and metal pipe, they extracted cores from the oyster reefs in 2011. About 10 centimeters in diameter, the cores sampled the full thickness of each reef, which ranged from 10 to 55 centimeters. Shortly after they were collected, the cores were sectioned off into 5-centimeter increments, sealed, and stored in a walk-in freezer. In the years since, the samples have proved useful for studying oyster reef growth during sea level rise and how much carbon the reefs sequester and in other areas of research. Recently, Smiley measured the nitrogen levels in each of these 5-centimeter sections.
Below the top 10 centimeters or so, where microbes break down organic matter, nitrogen levels increased. Looking at all samples, Smiley found that on average, a square meter of reef buried more than 6 grams of nitrogen each year, which is similar to the rate of nitrogen transformed by denitrification at oyster reefs.
“The more they can build up and out, the more [nitrogen] they can bury underneath.”
However, there was a large range in the amount of nitrogen buried, between 1 and 15 grams of nitrogen per square meter. The variability, the researchers found, was related to where the different oyster reefs grew.
For oyster reefs in sand flats, those in intertidal areas (between high and low tide on a shore) buried more than twice as much nitrogen as subtidal reefs, on average. Intertidal reefs grow faster and so bury more nitrogen. “The more they can build up and out, the more [nitrogen] they can bury underneath,” said Smiley.
But intertidal reefs that fringed the edge of salt marshes buried less nitrogen than other intertidal reefs. “They’re not able to grow as quickly,” she said, speculating that sediment from the neighboring marshes may slow reef growth.
Put Your Money Where Your Mollusk Is
Intertidal oyster reefs, like this one in coastal North Carolina, are exposed above water at low tide. Credit: Johanna Rosman/Institute of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill
North Carolina’s Department of Environmental Quality places the economic value of each kilogram of nitrogen removed from the environment at $26.39 (in 2024 dollars, which is about $28.50 in 2026). Using this figure, Smiley and her colleagues calculated that nitrogen removed from coastal waters and buried each year by a hectare of oyster reef has a value of $1,700 on average. This finding increases previous estimates of the value of oysters’ nitrogen removal services by 25% to 42%.
“A really valuable part of the study is not just taking those measurements, but then also translating that into valuation,” said Smith, who was not involved with the new study. The value of nitrogen burial can be added to oyster reef ecosystem services—the monetary value of benefits that humans gain from oyster reefs, such as clean water, food, and flood control. “[Buried nitrogen] is definitely an ecosystem service that I think is underappreciated,” she said.
Looking more broadly at the county that is home to the Rachel Carson Reserve, Smiley and her colleagues found that all the oyster reefs countywide bury about 120,000 kilograms of nitrogen each year—more than $3 million of value in the county’s shallow sounds and bays.
Citation: Gardiner, L. S. (2026), Oysters clean up more nitrogen pollution than we thought, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260182. Published on 4 June 2026.
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