Source: AGU Advances

Across the western United States, wildfires are increasing in size and intensity. As the climate continues to warm, more extreme wildfires will reshape landscapes and pose a growing risk to human health and natural ecosystems throughout the West.

Climate models, used to predict other effects of climate change, are unable to directly simulate wildfires. Instead, researchers link previously burned areas to climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, drought, and evaporation, then apply those relationships to future climate projections.

Many recent studies have connected higher vapor pressure deficit (VPD)—a measure of atmospheric dryness—to more area burned in previous fires. VPD increases as the temperature rises, so models that rely on it generally predict an increase in wildfire activity as the climate warms.

Cheng et al. raise questions about the role VPD plays in modeling wildfire, suggesting that VPD is a poor measure of fuel dryness at larger scales and overestimates potential burned areas under significant warming conditions. Instead, researchers suggest soil moisture could be a more reliable indicator of fuel dryness and lead to more moderate projections of wildfire increases.

The researchers looked at five forested ecoregions in the western states. Using the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire dataset from 1984 to 2020 combined with climate data (temperature, VPD, and soil moisture), the researchers analyzed drivers of the area burned from May through October. They connected this information with output from climate models to look at future burn potential.

VPD-based wildfire predictions increase sharply under warming conditions. These predictions showed that under 3°C of average global warming, 16 times as much land would burn by the end of the century, compared to historical levels. Under 4°C of warming, up to 66 times more land would burn by the end of the century. This “truly massive” increase, the authors say, would mean fires consuming vegetation almost as soon as it regrows.

Soil moisture, on the other hand, provides a more moderate, though still concerning, picture. Under the same warming scenarios, soil moisture changes would lead to an increase in burned area of only 2–3 times that of the historical period. The researchers argue that projections relying on VPD severely exaggerate wildfire risk. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026AV002350, 2026)

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2026), How much will western wildfires worsen under warming?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260147. Published on 15 May 2026.

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Source: Geophysical Research Letters

As seismic waves travel through Earth, they gradually lose energy, a process called attenuation. That energy loss doesn’t happen uniformly—some features in the crust sap far more energy from seismic waves than others. Researchers can map underground features by watching where seismic waves lose more or less energy. The Southern Array for the Lithosphere and Uplift of Taiwan Experiment (SALUTE) is doing just that, providing information that could lead to improved seismic hazard planning in the country.

Lin et al. report attenuation results from SALUTE focused on the convergence between the Eurasian plate and the Luzon Arc, an understudied, geologically dynamic area where Earth’s crust is deforming. Using the overall attenuation rate and relative attenuation rates of P and S seismic waves, the authors imaged active faults, identified distinct lithologies, and better resolved the Luzon forearc block that sits just offshore of Taiwan.

The authors used data from the SALUTE high-density seismographic network, spanning December 2020 to December 2023, to construct both 2D and 3D attenuation models. They found clear changes in attenuation associated with major faults, as well as areas of high attenuation associated with fluid-rich, ductile zones in the lower crust that cause tectonic tremors. Their attenuation imaging additionally revealed that the Luzon forearc block, which had been poorly imaged in the past, dips northward and narrows as it nears the convergence zone.

The authors say their results agree well with previous velocity-based seismic imaging studies and show that attenuation can image features, such as transition zones, that were previously difficult to capture. Their data could also be useful for better understanding seismic hazard throughout the region, they note. (Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121583, 2026)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2026), Seismic attenuation techniques reveal what lies beneath Taiwan, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260150. Published on 11 May 2026.

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Source: Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

About 600 million years ago, the continents wandered Earth, yet to settle into their current positions. Their locations during the Ediacaran (as this time is called) have been tough for scientists to pin down. Earth’s magnetic field appears to have behaved in erratic ways, and applying standard techniques to calculate the continents’ positions based on records of the magnetic field yields implausible results. In particular, scientists debate the location of an ancient continent called Baltica, which is now part of Europe.

To investigate, Xue et al. traveled to Egersund, Norway, to collect samples of rock that formed during a time when Baltica’s crust was being pulled apart, allowing magma to percolate up from below. As that magma hardened, it recorded snapshots of Earth’s magnetic field, storing information about Baltica’s position in the process.

The results of studying these samples revealed a much more complex picture of the ancient rocks than the scientists initially envisioned. The rocks contained a messy mix of at least six magnetic signals. Several appeared to have formed when more modern geological processes altered the original rocks. Three distinct signals may have survived from the Ediacaran period, two of which diverge from the most plausible Ediacaran signal, which places Baltica near the equator. These conflicting signals further support the idea that Earth’s magnetic field was behaving strangely at the time, adding new complexity to an already puzzling picture.

On the basis of the new results, the researchers place the Egersund paleomagnetic pole at 20.8°N, 89.0°E during the Ediacaran—which diverges from previous results—and suggest that Baltica was located near the equator, adjacent to the ancient continent Laurentia, but rotated slightly clockwise relative to previous reconstructions. The study demonstrates the convoluted nature of the magnetic signals preserved in ancient rocks and the importance of dissecting those records into their constituent components. Doing so, the researchers suggest, can shed new light on the enigmatic behavior of Earth’s magnetic field during the Ediacaran. (Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GC012730, 2026)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2026), Where was Baltica 616 million years ago?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260124. Published on 5 2026.

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Source: AGU Advances

Urbanization, climate change, and fire suppression practices are contributing to increased wildfire risk at the densely populated wildland-urban interface. These factors make fires more unpredictable and harder to manage. In January 2025, this was made devastatingly clear in Los Angeles, when massive wildfires engulfed entire hillsides and canyons, destroying neighborhoods and damaging surrounding ecosystems.

The Mediterranean climate region of California, which stretches up most of the state’s coastline, is a naturally fire-prone landscape because its dry conditions support vegetation growth and also allow for fire to spread easily. As wildfires become more intense, better modeling and understanding of their drivers is crucial in efforts to predict risk.

Ward-Baranyay et al. looked at three of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires by analyzing preburn conditions, such as fuel characteristics, topography (including elevation and slope), and wind speed. Satellite observations gathered from the Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) and the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT)—precursors to a recently announced NASA mission, the Explorer for Artemis Geology Lunar and Earth (EAGLE)—provided detailed information about the vegetation’s condition before the fires began. The researchers then built a random forest regression model to predict burn severity based on these conditions, ultimately demonstrating that prefire fuel conditions were a key driver of the destructive wildfires’ immediate effects on wildlands.

The model used in the study was able to accurately capture about 60% of the patterns in burn severity. It was most accurate for the Palisades and Hughes fires, but less accurate for the Eaton Fire. This discrepancy could be because the area burned by the Eaton Fire was more topographically variable, meaning its burn severity drivers may not have been fully captured by the model, the researchers suggest. Vegetation type was also a strong performance indicator: Terrain with shrub or scrub cover, the dominant vegetation type, offered the most accurate predictions for burn severity. The burn patterns of forests and other landscape types were less accurately captured.

Fuel conditions emerged as the dominant driver of burn severity, more so than topography or weather. In particular, how abundant, wet, dry, or stressed vegetation is can hint at how severe future fires may be. Tracking and monitoring these fuel conditions, researchers suggest, may be a way to monitor wildfire hazard in California and other fire-prone regions. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002179, 2026)

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2026), Want to predict wildfire severity? Look to the state of vegetation, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260130. Published on 4 May 2026.

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Source: Water Resources Research

Wildfires can increase flooding risks in and downstream of burned areas by removing vegetation and disturbing hydrologic processes. As the climate changes, the severity of both wildfires and heavy rainfall events is increasing, meaning flooding is likely to become more severe in the near future. Better understanding how, and by how much, wildfires change flood risk is important for disaster and infrastructure planning for communities around the country.

Canham and Lane used streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Information System and precipitation data from the NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration product to identify storms and quantify their effects across seven burned watersheds in the western United States.

To make the most of the limited data on flooding in the years following wildfires, the researchers created a paired-storms framework: They identified postfire peak flows (PFPFs), defined as the five highest peak flows within 3 years of a wildfire across seven watersheds. Then, for each precipitation event causing a PFPF, they looked for storms with similar characteristics (or paired storms) that occurred before the wildfire. Storm characteristics used for pairing included the season in which the storm occurred, recent precipitation, and precipitation depth, duration, and peak intensity.

The researchers found significantly elevated peak flows after wildfires in many cases, underlining the risks to communities following wildfires and validating their approach for use elsewhere.

Altogether, the authors found 26 PFPF events, including 20 with paired storms occurring before wildfires. For 75% of the postfire storms, their peak flows were 2 or more times greater than prefire peak flows. PFPFs were most likely to happen in the first year after a wildfire and typically occurred following storms that were centered upstream of the watershed centroid, were uniform in shape, and fully covered the watershed and burned area, the authors reported. They also found some evidence that the first storm in the year immediately following a fire has a higher-than-expected chance of producing a PFPF.

Future work could look more deeply at the characteristics of storms occurring over burned areas, such as storm direction and watershed recovery, and could apply the automated methods to more burned watersheds and storm events to enhance the robustness of the work, the authors say. (Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040693, 2026)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2026), How wildfires worsen flood risk, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260133. Published on 30 April 2026.

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Source: Water Resources Research

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. 本文是Eos文章的授权翻译。

如果人类想要在太空生活，无论是在航天器里还是在火星上，首先要解决的一个问题就是如何获取水，来满足饮用、卫生需求以及为维持生命所需的植物提供水分。即便只是将水运送到近地轨道上的国际空间站（ISS），也需要花费数万美元。因此，找到在太空中高效、持久且可靠地获取和再利用水资源的方法，对于长期在太空居住至关重要。

目前的系统，比如国际空间站上的环境控制与生命支持系统（ECLSS），为闭合式水回收提供了蓝图，但它们还需要改进才能适应未来的应用。与此同时，近期的技术和科学进步正为在严苛环境下寻找、净化和管理水资源开辟新的途径。在一篇新的综述中，Olawade等人概述了地外水资源管理的现状，以及该领域的前景和挑战。

作者指出，太空水系统需要具备闭环、高效和持久耐用的特性，同时还要满足低能耗的要求。目前，ECLSS能耗过高，其效率可能也不足以满足长期任务的需求。未来建议采用的过滤和回收方法包括：利用光催化技术通过光线净化水，利用生物反应器过滤尿液和废水，利用离子交换系统去除提取水中的溶解盐和重金属，以及利用紫外线或臭氧消毒杀灭病原体。每种方法各有优缺点：例如，生物反应器中的微生物燃料电池可以发电，而光催化净化则能耗较低。

在月球或火星这样的地方获取水，要么需要从风化层中提取水，要么需要钻探冰体。如何为水回收系统提供足够的能源也是一个问题，因此开发节能系统是需要优先考虑的事项。水系统的耐久性也很重要，既要保护宇航员的安全，又要能减少繁重的维护工作。

新兴技术有望应对其中许多挑战。作者们指出两个具有巨大应用前景的领域，一是纳米技术的发展，它可用于制造定制化程度更高、过滤效果更佳且耐污染的膜材料，二是人工智能（AI）技术在水系统自主管理中的应用。(Water Resources Research, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR041273, 2026)

—科学撰稿人Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp)

This translation was made by Wiley. 本文翻译由Wiley提供。

Read this article on WeChat. 在微信上阅读本文。

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Source: AGU Advances

The Sun continuously blasts charged, magnetic field–carrying particles, or plasma, in all directions. This solar wind interacts with the magnetic fields and atmospheres of several of our solar system’s planets and other bodies, sculpting long magnetic tails of charged particles—magnetotails—that stretch into space behind them.

Magnetotails contain thin layers of electric current–carrying plasma sheets, which sometimes “flap” in an up-and-down waving motion. Spacecraft observations have revealed that flapping in Earth’s magnetotail can be driven by a process called magnetic reconnection, in which magnetic field lines rapidly break and then snap together in a new configuration, releasing stored energy. However, whether reconnection plays this same role beyond Earth has thus far been a mystery.

Wen et al. report the first evidence that magnetic reconnection may also trigger magnetotail flapping at Mars.

Unlike Earth, Mars lost its global magnetic field billions of years ago. But it still sports a magnetotail, thanks in large part to interactions between the solar wind and charged particles in its upper atmosphere. Strong magnetic fields embedded in certain patches of the Martian crust—remnants of its lost planet-wide field—also influence the magnetotail.

Until recently, Mars’s magnetotail could only be studied using observations from NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) spacecraft. MAVEN showed that the Martian magnetotail is highly dynamic, with a structure that twists, shifts, and flaps—and from which charged particles may escape into space. But because MAVEN can observe only one part of the magnetotail at a time, it couldn’t identify what processes might trigger flapping.

Another spacecraft, China’s Tianwen-1 orbiter, has now provided a second set of eyes. The researchers analyzed simultaneous observations from the two spacecraft, finding that signatures of magnetic reconnection detected by MAVEN in the upstream part of the magnetotail tended to coincide with flapping events detected downstream by Tianwen-1.

Before or during flapping, the spacecraft also detected temporary, twisted plasma structures known as flux ropes. A similar link has previously been observed on Earth, and it suggests that flux ropes generated by magnetic reconnection upstream might propagate downstream, driving instabilities in the magnetotail’s plasma sheets and triggering flapping.

Though more research is needed to confirm these findings, they shed new light on how energy moves and is released in space around Mars—and possibly other planets and celestial objects. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026AV002343, 2026)

—Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

Citation: Stanley, S. (2026), What makes Mars’s magnetotail flap?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260123. Published on 20 April 2026.

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Source: Global Biogeochemical Cycles

The biological carbon pump moves carbon from near the ocean’s surface to deeper regions, maintaining the upper ocean’s ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. One component of this system is driven by eddies, or relatively small-scale circular water currents powered by physical instabilities within the ocean. Previous estimates have suggested the eddy subduction pump may play a large role in moving carbon deep into the ocean, but the absence of global synthesis leaves the question open.

With data from a worldwide network of remote sensors, Keutgen De Greef et al. captured the eddy subduction pump in action around the globe. Their analysis shows that this pump carries less than 5% of the overall organic carbon transported by the biological carbon pump, meaning it’s of secondary importance to understanding ocean carbon flows.

The authors used data spanning 2010 to 2024 from 941 Argo floats drifting autonomously around the globe. They found 1,333 eddy subduction events below 200 meters. Adding up the contribution of a subset of these they identified as carbon subduction events, they estimated the eddy subduction pump exports 0.05 petagram (~50 million metric tons) of carbon per year from the ocean surface. Carbon subduction hot spots exist at mid- to high latitudes in the Southern Ocean and subpolar North Atlantic, both of which also exhibited a strong seasonal peak in spring. The authors also noted a correlation between eddy kinetic energy and physical subduction events (when surface waters sink below the mixed layer), providing insights into the mechanisms driving the eddy subduction pump

The study comes with some limitations, including the sparsity of data in ocean regions including much of the Pacific, the South Atlantic, and the southern Indian Ocean, which could lead to those regions’ contributions being underestimated. The Argo floats measure particulate carbon levels but are unable to effectively measure dissolved organic carbon, meaning some carbon export is being missed. But given the minimal contribution of the eddy subduction pump, these factors may not significantly change estimates of overall biological carbon subduction, the authors suggest. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GB008912, 2026)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2026), Eddy or not: Do eddies actually transport that much carbon?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260119. Published on 17 April 2026.

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