How long can a civilization survive before it collapses? βStable utopias are the least likely scenariosβ
21 May 2026 at 19:58
In the midβ20th century, when humanity discovered it had the ability to wipe itself out, Albert Einstein and Robert Oppenheimer imagined a symbolic clock measuring how close we were to disaster. But the threat was never limited to the nuclear realm. A recently published paper shows as much. Resource depletion, institutional fragility, and potential technological crises have all served as key variables for a group of researchers trying to determine how long a civilization can remain active before collapsing. In that effort, the authors sketched out 10 possible futures a thousand years from now.

